Here we are everyone, football is officially back!
With the start of a new season of NFL Football approaching, comes the start of many fantasy football drafts. I for one, LOVE this time of year as I think drafting in fantasy is one of the best parts about playing it.
When drafting we all want to get at least one player from our favorite team right? Well, I am here to tell you on which of the Colts players you should be targeting in this year’s fantasy drafts!
Let’s start it off with the Colts newest QB1, Matt Ryan. All ADP info from Sleeper.
Matt Ryan, ADP: QB21
Matt Ryan is going to be a good real-life QB for the Colts, but will he be a good fantasy option for you? First, lets take a look at his past.
Since the 2009 season, Ryan has put up a QB1 season(QB12 or higher) in 9 of 13 seasons. The lowest he has ever finished since 2009 is QB20, which he did twice, including last year. The biggest issue with Ryan is the upside is not with him as it was in years past. While I love Pittman (you’ll see why in a little bit), he is no Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley yet. I still expect Ryan to outperform his ADP (I would rank him closer to QB15).
Part of your decision to draft him depends on what kind of league setup you have (1 QB, 2 QB, or Superflex [having a QB in one of your flex spots]). In one-QB leagues, I would personally pass as I would prefer a higher upside QB, and I normally don’t take a backup QB. Instead, if you take a later-round QB and mainly will be streaming the position from week to week, Ryan is a guy who you could start from time to time and perhaps Week 1 against the Texans.
Verdict: PASS IN 1 QB, DRAFT IN 2 QB/SUPERFLEX
Jonathan Taylor, ADP: RB1
I’m not going to take long on this; the answer is yes. There is a reason he is going with the 1st overall pick. I mentioned on my twitter the only person you could realistically draft over him is CMC but Taylor is a much safer option (Click here for why!). While I don’t expect Taylor to repeat as the overall RB1, he’s almost a lock as a top 5 option.
Verdict: YOU HAVE TO DRAFT IF YOU HAVE THE CHANCE
Nyheim Hines, ADP: RB45
Honestly, Hines is a tricky player when it comes to fantasy football. He has shown he can have a fantasy impact as he was RB15 in PPR (point per reception) in 2020 with Phillip Rivers. But he has also shown he is a volatile player when it comes to fantasy, as last year he was RB49. But what will he be this year?
I recently posted a thread on Twitter on why you should be taking Hines, especially in bestball (where they start your best lineup automatically). He has a QB upgrade with Ryan, who likes to target his running backs.
I mean just take a look at Cordarrelle Patterson’s numbers from last year; 69 targets, 52 receptions for 548 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now Patterson came into the league as a WR, so does that mean anything for Hines? Well yes, because Hines has been working with the WR at times at Colts camp and has lined up in the slot multiple times. This is why I believe Hines will get a career high in receptions.
Hines has hit the 63 reception mark twice already, but why do I think it will be higher this season? The situation is a major factor. One of these 63 reception season was with Rivers, and I believe Matt Ryan is an improvement over what Rivers was that year.
The contract the Colts gave to Hines is also top 15 among RBs, so they obviously want to be using him. Hines being used as a WR, and the team not signing another WR shows that they have trust in him being a WR at times. With Coach Reich mentioning he would draft Hines in fantasy because of how they want to use him, it means you should be listening.
While I am telling you to draft Hines, just expect some weeks won’t be great for him. In 2020 when he finished as RB15 overall, he had less than 10 PPR points in 7 games. But even though some weeks will be low for Hines, his price is too good to be passing up on him.
Verdict: DRAFT
Michael Pittman, ADP: WR15
I am trying to get Pittman in as many leagues as I can at this ADP. Pittman being this low means I can get myself one or potentially two elite RBs to pair him with. I also posted a thread on why Pittman has a chance to be a top 10 WR this year.
The biggest reason for this jump is QB play. Wentz did help Pittman break out last year (finished WR17), but wasn’t helping Pittman to his potential. Wentz was 29th in accuracy and 22% of Pittman’s targets were deemed uncatchable. This led to some underthrown balls and pass interferences instead of completions. Ryan, on the other hand, finished 8th in accuracy.
Matt Harmon made a Reception Perception profile on Pittman that shows he can be a number 1 WR in the NFL.
The most exciting #ReceptionPerception profile that hit the site yesterday: Michael Pittman.
– 96th percentile success rate vs. press
– Shades of Allen Robinson/Keenan Allen in RP
– Looks like a legit No. 1 WRFull profile:https://t.co/oomw57XLfu pic.twitter.com/en8wLjeMir
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 7, 2022
Speaking of number 1 WRs, Matt Ryan’s top option averaged over 160 targets since 2009. Not only that, but since 2009 Ryan’s top option finished as a top 10 WR 11 out of 13 seasons!
I think there are pretty good odds that Pittman continues this trend and is a top 10 option this year. Pittman is also in a great situation where his only competition at the moment is a rookie and a receiver that hasn’t played a full season in the NFL yet.
The Colts even had the chance to sign one of Ryans’ best friends from his time in Atlanta and chose to roll with who they currently have. His target share should continue to be one of the largest in the NFL.
Verdict: DRAFT
Alec Pierce, ADP: WR68; Parris Campbell, ADP: WR74
When it comes to the Colts’ WR room, the only shot I want to be taking is Pittman. But I know it’s difficult to be getting Pittman in every draft, so what about the other options?
There is a reason why both of these players are going this late in drafts. One is a rookie and the other has yet to play for over half a season. They are definitely players with high upside that I am fine with getting one as my last bench spot. And while the ADP doesn’t show it, I would rather be taking Campbell as he has shown flashes of fantasy success and has been receiving more targets in camp from Ryan.
Verdict: PASS, OR DRAFT AS LAST BENCH PLAYER
Mo-Alie Cox, ADP: TE30; Other Colts TE’s: Undrafted
I like the upside of this tight-end room in real life but I just do not see any way that any of these players have much fantasy success this year. I just don’t see any of them getting much consistency to where you would want one of these guys on your fantasy team. The Colts will likely use multiple tight ends from game to game, causing a lot of headaches in trying to decide which one will be the best option for which game.
Verdict: PASS
Colts Defense, ADP: DEF12
I am surprised that the Colts defense is going this late in drafts currently. The last two years their worst finish was DEF7, and they added Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue. While I don’t believe Gus Bradley’s defense will be relying as much on turnovers as the last scheme was, I believe their sack numbers will go up. I still believe they will finish as a top 10 unit for fantasy.
Verdict: DRAFT
Rodrigo Blankenship, ADP: K11
In an ideal world, you wouldn’t need to draft a kicker in fantasy and instead add another flex spot. But if you are in a league with kickers, don’t be taking Hot Rod, we don’t even know if he will be on the roster by Week 1.
Verdict: PASS
As you can see I am very in on the Colts offense this year. I believe a few players from the Colts offense (and defense) are being undervalued this year.
Now I want to hear YOUR thoughts! Go follow me on Twitter @LukeVerkamp and message me if there are players that I am saying to draft that you would pass on or if I’m being too harsh on a player I would pass on and you think should be drafted!
Stay tuned as well, as I will be releasing another article with the best Colts fantasy football team names out there!
