The Colts have finally hit the metaphorical fork in the road. Last year, after missing the playoffs by a play-in game, they made the reasonable decision to run it back with the same team in the offseason and re-signed veteran free agents on expiring contracts. It’s easy to play revisionist history now, but extending DeForest Buckner, Zaire Franklin, Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart, and Kenny Moore II all made a lot of sense. They all had bounce-back years from 2022 and they were key contributors to the team and locker room.
That being said, the results are lackluster.. Yet again. 2024 was not the season that anyone had in mind. The reality is that the timelines of this organization are all over the place and nothing is aligned. Retaining the GM, who was rightfully on the hot seat after an abysmal 2022, and pairing him with a young head coach and one of the rawest QB prospects in a long time is a recipe for disaster. You have a roster they said was ready to “win now” but a QB who had 72 pass attempts in the NFL. The timelines don’t align. And this is where you are now.
In theory, you would love to run it back with Steichen, even if this year has been very ugly. A good litmus test for keeping or retaining your HC is asking yourself “If I let Coach X go.. will the rest of the league be itching to hire him?” I think for the most part you can answer that yourself. Two rollercoaster years in Indianapolis aren’t going to make the league forget about Steichen’s resume-developing QBs. I feel sure of that. But the long leash of his 6-year deal doesn’t last forever in the NFL.
So what do you do now? Pull the plug on this thing entirely and force AR to learn a new system in a critical year of development with a regime that didn’t draft him and maybe a coach that doesn’t fully believe in him? Or do you run it back yet again with a general manager who has shown in eight years that he isn’t capable of fielding a championship-level roster? You could maybe try both and find a new GM and keep the Coach and QB, but all you’re doing is starting from square one with timelines that don’t match up.
Consistently finishing at picks 12-17 makes it tough for a whole organizational reset as well, and has frankly plagued the Colts for years. It’s an endless cycle.
So there’s the problem.. Here is my proposed solution.
This offseason is all about Anthony Richardson.
The only timeline this organization does have is very clear: Anthony Richardson’s rookie contract. In 2027, here are your free agents on expiring deals: Anthony Richardson, DeForest Buckner, Michael Pittman Jr., Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, Kenny Moore II, and Grover Stewart.
The focus is all about maximizing this environment so when it comes time to make the evaluation, there is no grey area.
What is the offseason program going to look like for him personally? What can we do as an organization to give this guy the best shot at reaching his ceiling? The way rookie contracts work, the Colts have 1-2 years to reach a conclusion on whether they’re throwing another dart at the dart board or getting ready to open up the checkbook. At this point, I don’t think they’ve made progress on either. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but you need to take the necessary steps in order to get there.
CHRIS BALLARD
In my opinion, the biggest issue with the Colts (and organizations that are repeatedly in the market for an organizational reset), is that they consistently put regimes and QBs on different timelines. Firing Chris Ballard gives you the scapegoat and the vindication everyone is looking for, but you’re setting yourself up for yet another awkward timeline. Chances are, you’re just delaying the inevitable organizational reset since the GM will want to hire their guy and find their QB. Head Coach and GM alignment is key. If you don’t have that, you don’t have a winning team. For the sake of this exercise, and as ugly as it sounds, I want to retain Ballard until I’m ready to part ways with the entire regime.. that includes Anthony Richardson.
This is an ugly decision, but I think it’s one that’s probably best for the Colts long-term. It was an unorthodox decision at the time to let him stay through 2022 and in 2024 that decision is turning out to be detrimental. Assuming that you have given up on Anthony, which is way too early, the QB class isn’t strong enough and you won’t be picking high enough anyway. The next GM isn’t going to help you in 2025, so why do it now? Why not do it when you know for sure that the QB and HC are not in the plans?
I don’t have much confidence that Chris Ballard can help the Colts dig out of this hole, but if you’re gonna reset, you reset the entire thing. You hire the GM and HC who will draft the next QB. I don’t think we’re there yet.
SHANE STEICHEN & COACHING STAFF
So if I’m opting to keep Chris Ballard, I’m also going to retain Steichen as I said in the “preamble”. He’s really the main reason it’s worth retaining Ballard and this is a no-brainer for me.
Despite what seems like a regression year for the HC, let’s not forget one year ago he was a Coach of The Year candidate who had the Colts playing good football with Gardner Minshew. He was handed the hardest project of his career in developing Anthony Richardson, the rollercoaster was inevitable. He needs to go back to the drawing board and evaluate everything. Training Camp, Practice Schedules, Staffing, Nutrition/Strength programs, Scheme, etc. What went wrong and how do I not let this happen again? I think he deserves that shot.
There are some really talented coaches on this staff. There also need to be tough conversations about replacing coaches on the staff.
Gus Bradley, a popular scapegoat, has actually had the defense playing better down the stretch. Minnesota, Denver (for the most part), Buffalo, etc. are just some examples of some games this unit performing better than expected. That being said, the market for DCs this offseason, by way of position coaches and fired HCs, will be very strong. It might be a tough decision and maybe unfair to a degree, but one that might need to be made. The overachieving performances are balanced out with some ugly and inexcusable ones that are just hard to ignore.
For the sake of this exercise, as I’m putting myself in the seat of the people making these decisions, here’s another caveat that’s important to recognize: If you want the top position coaches and coordinators on the market, you need one, but preferably two things: 1. Money 2. An existing staff that isn’t going to be fired in a year.
If you think you have a shot at bringing in Dennis Allen, Saleh, one of the emerging position coaches etc. then this is absolutely the year to do it.
PERSONNEL
The theme of this offseason: PART WAYS WITH GOOD IN ORDER TO FIND GREAT. The Colts for years have been a team with a bunch of good players built through the draft. Well in the NFL, if you only have a bunch of good players, you only have a solid team. The great teams have great players. The Colts don’t have that. They are a solid team.
The TE room needs to be built from the ground up, as I’ve mentioned before, and as we all know. The room was supposed to be a sum of its parts. It has regressed to virtually nonexistent in 2024. Additionally they don’t have a guy who can play in 11p and also be a viable blocker and route runner. It’s holding the group back. Tyler Warren can be that guy.
The WR room isn’t as deep or as great as we thought coming into the year. They don’t have anyone who can win on the outside. AD Mitchell is their best option, but he is so unreliable at this early stage in his career it’s hard to play him consistently. Alec Pierce has elite deep speed and the ability to play above the rim on Go’s and Posts, but he’s just not sudden enough to affect the game beyond those deep developing routes. Michael Pittman Jr. has been solid at best, albeit battling some serious injuries. Josh Downs is the exception in this room. He’s a stud slot receiver with so much untapped potential.
The OL took a step back, considering they were fairly healthy in 2023. Goncalves was an upgrade as a swing tackle over Blake Freeland. Tanor Bortolini came in as a spot starter at center and had some good moments. But both are raw developing players. Losing Will Fries was a back-breaking injury. A UDFA rookie wasn’t a good enough plan. Oddly enough I feel most confident about this group moving forward.
Jonathan Taylor, even prior to the season-altering fumble, needs a complimentary back to split snaps. He’s not Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey. It’s time to stop pretending that he is a true workhorse back. The team has all but told you they won’t play him in pure passing scenarios. While it’s common to have a Scat back or a 2-minute back, if you can’t pass protect or run routes, then you can’t afford to be a captain and vet leader making that kind of mistake. That being said, he is still one of the best runners of the football in the league. He’s bailed the Colts out more than he’s ever held them back. Moving forward, in order to keep Jonathan Taylor healthy and maximize his talent, the Colts need to manage his carries and find a complementary back. Similar to Montgomery and Gibbs, but more realistically like Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Zack Moss.
The Defensive Line was supposed to be touted as the deepest unit on the team. Rotational 3-technique needs to be at a premium. The Pass Rush was as dead as ever when DeForest Buckner was on IR. The Colts would be wise to dip into the pass rush market in Free Agency. They have too many holes to invest a top-30 pick on another rusher. They also need additional depth as next year is basically a prove-it year for Kwity Paye and also are likely forced to choose between Ebukam or Dayo moving forward. DL will be a priority again, as it should every year.
The Linebacker room is one of the more controversial units on the team. The Colts just extended Zaire Franklin, so he’s in their plans in hell or high water; especially as a green dot and team captain. He’s also significantly better than I think he gets credit for. EJ Speed is a good player and current free agent, but at his age and likely cost, this is a great opportunity to part ways if the price isn’t right.
The DB room will likely need some overhaul as well. Nick Cross and Jaylon Jones took some really encouraging steps forward. But if there are great players out there, the Colts shouldn’t be afraid to part ways with what they have in order to go after them. Samuel Womack and Jaylon Jones are good players. I’d even go as far as saying Womack and especially Jaylon Jones had moments of being great players. But while investing significant resources into the position is silly for how volatile the position can be year to year, waiver claims and late day 3 picks won’t achieve sustained success.
CULTURE
This may arguably be the biggest issue on the team, but the one topic I can’t really speak on. I won’t make assumptions because that’s not fair, but it doesn’t take a genius to tell you there’s something off with the culture in the building, and has been for years. All you have to do is listen to the vet leaders, they aren’t shy about it.
BOTTOM LINE
At the end of the day, this is not a good football team. It’s not a bad one either. It’s mediocre. It makes it tough to build strictly through the draft. It also makes it more difficult to make sweeping decisions because the grass might not always be greener on the other side.
Serious changes need to be made in order to get a full evaluation of this regime and of this QB. But mixing and matching timelines set themselves up for failure and they’d be silly to do it again. In my opinion, they need to see this regime through. You aren’t finding a new QB in 2025, and you’re probably not gonna find anyone with a better resume at developing QBs, so why set Anthony up for failure by having him learn a new system with a guy you might just fire if it doesn’t work at the end of the contract anyway?
Colts completely collapse in Denver to wash away playoff hopes
