The Colts passing attack in the first three weeks has been…. odd?
Unlike most of the league, they’ve had no problem generating explosive plays. But they’ve had problems sustaining drives, evening out time of possession, and playing with a lead. That leads to a lot of funky games.
But in Week 4 we saw Josh Downs have a real impact on this offense and make critical plays on 9 targets to win the game. He is showing he can be the great equalizer for this 2024 Colts offense.
Steichen clearly knows where the bones are buried in this defense because this is a prime example of good advance scouting, play design, and play calling to get your QB an easy completion.
The Colts start in 4×1 and motion to 3×2 empty. To adjust the Steelers take ILB Payton… pic.twitter.com/9PuJObxvf4
— Colts Film Room (@ColtsFilmRoom) September 30, 2024
Here’s the first target of the game in a 2nd & 9 scenario in the 1st quarter. The Colts motion from 4×1 with JT as the single receiver to 3×2 (Empty). A good rule of thumb in this offense, and a lot of NFL offenses, is to find the guy at #2 weak in Empty Formations. They’re usually trying to get him the ball.
I’ve explained this ad nauseam in my previous content, but for any newcomers to Colts Film Room, I’ll break it down for you. In 90% of NFL defenses, the Nickel or slot corner will align to the side of the passing strength (side of the formation with the most receiving threats). The reason for that is that your nickel is usually one of your best cover guys, so you want him where the eligible receivers are. You don’t ever want your ILB to have to cover a stud receiver.
Empty Formations uses that defensive rule against them. In this clip you can see when Josh Downs gets set, the nickel is on the side of the passing strength (aligned over Alec Pierce) like he should be. But because Josh Downs is on the weak side of the formation, the Steelers have to put a SAF or a LB on him. That’s a win for the Colts.
— TBSFilm (@TBS_Film) September 30, 2024
Here’s Josh Downs at #2 Weak again. This time they’ll start with Josh Downs as the single receiver and the RB in the backfield, and Pittsburgh knows what’s coming. This is the third option that defenses can do to defend this. Check to M/M. But even then, it still causes issues. First and foremost, you can’t disguise it. All the corners are in press man and when you walk a LB out to cover a RB the whole building knows what the coverage is.
Secondly, the Nickel still has to go to the passing strength by rule. Joey Porter Jr is a great corner and this is tight coverage, no doubt. But the Colts most likely convert the typical option route to a one-step slant vs. press. Despite being a really good corner, the Nickel is usually the best athletic profile and body type to cover a guy like Josh Downs. Josh winning on the one-step slant + some precise ball placement from Joe Flacco = first down Colts.
— TBSFilm (@TBS_Film) September 30, 2024
Late in the game (3rd & 7) and the Steelers see, once again, Josh Downs as the single receiver and a RB in the backfield. This time they say, screw it, we all know what’s coming. We’re gonna play 1-Robber and rotate that safety down into the hole but cheat to Downs and have our corner play heavy outside leverage to create a natural bracket.
But Josh Downs is still able to slow skip release and beat the corner to his outside, and then make one of the more acrobatic YAC plays on the sideline that you’ll see.
On 9 targets and 8 catches Josh Downs proved to be unguardable in the middle part of the field. He was too shifty, too quick, and too smart for any of the Steelers DBs. When scouts use the term “can win in a phone booth” they are talking about Josh Downs and his play style.
The Steelers did everything they could to adjust to it and it didn’t work.
However, here’s the caveat: If they weren’t already, the league is on notice for Josh Downs and how dangerous his option routes can be. It will be interesting to see how the season long chess match unfolds
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