Training Camp has returned, and our favorite time of year has come along with it! Football is back, and with it, most likely your fantasy football draft is right around the corner. As I have for the last two seasons, I am once again here to tell you who you should or should not be drafting on what is most likely your favorite team, the Colts.
For a little background information to start, in 2023, the Colts ended up 15th in offensive yards per game, and 11th in points per game. This was mostly without starting QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor. So I am projecting a slight increase due to having both back on the starting roster as well as it being year 2 of the Shane Steichen system. That would make this team top 10 in points per game, which means this is an offense you probably want to invest in this season. The question is where?
ADP (Average Draft Position) information via Sleeper.app
QB: Anthony Richardson; ADP: QB6
Fantasy football is about playing the odds. It’s kind of like gambling in a sense, some players have higher risk but also a higher reward. Normally you play fantasy football with either 9 or 11 other people, putting your odds of winning a normal league at 8-10%. You can raise your odds by knowing more information than your teammates, but with these odds sometimes you need to swing for the fences, and to me, Anthony Richardson is that swing.
We saw his high potential on the field even with his limited playing time last season. Out of 49 qualified quarterbacks last season, Anthony Richardson had THE highest fantasy points per dropback(via DraftSharks). This was mainly due to his athleticism, his rushing ability, and being in Shane Steichen’s offense.
Richardson LED THE NFL in fantasy points per-dropback (.76)
Which would’ve been the highest-mark since Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season (in which he averaged 28.1 fantasy PPG).
Via @RyanJ_Heathhttps://t.co/BKMEhNNRtx
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 24, 2024
Now if that is not enough of a reason to make you want to draft him for this season, let’s take a closer look at what he has going for this season. He is going into his second season, which means he will know the playbook and the offense better, making the game easier for him. Not only that, but he now officially has Jonathan Taylor in the same backfield with him, which will take a lot of heat from the defense off of him. The team also improved with its weapons, once again drafting a playmaker on day 2 of the draft (Adonai Mitchell). With Shane Steichen once again calling the plays for these playmakers, I think we have not even seen his true ceiling.
#Colts HC Shane Steichen makes it clear that QB Anthony Richardson will be used frequently as a runner. Obviously, that doesn’t mean he’ll be a run-first QB, but the threat of his legs will certainly be utilized.
“Are you gonna limit Steph Curry from shooting 3-pointers?”
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) July 25, 2024
The biggest reason to NOT draft Anthony Richardson is his ability to stay on the field. He has been plagued with injuries in college and to start his NFL career. It is a very fair argument to make against a mobile, rushing QB like Richardson. The thing is, I always feel it’s unwise to try and predict injuries. Last season, with so many NFL starting QBs getting hurt, somehow the “injury-prone” Lamar Jackson played a full season. Not too long ago, I remember people not wanting to take Christian McCaffery 1st overall because of the “injury risk.” With Richardson’s upside, it’s worth that injury risk.
Players drafted around him include; Kyle Pitts, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Aaron Jones, George Kittle, and James Conner. While all could be solid contributors to your fantasy team, Richardson could give you a weekly positional advantage that these veterans don’t offer. Houston’s CJ Stroud(QB5) is currently being drafted almost 20 picks ahead of him, who I believe does not offer even close to the same upside as Richardson.
Verdict: Draft, and take a backup late (Goff, Stafford, Cousins)
RB: Jonathan Taylor; ADP: RB5
Last year I said to draft Jonathan Taylor at your own risk. This was due to him having contract issues and an injury going into training camp and the season. And it ended up being the correct call, as he ended up as the RB33 on the season, playing only 10 games. He did well in those 10 games, but if you drafted him where he was going as a mid-second-round pick, it was a major disappointment for your team and likely hurt your chances of going to the playoffs.
This year, on the other hand, is a different story. He has a contract, he is in training camp with no injury issues, and he is happy. After showing up to camp last year in hoodies with the hood up, this training camp he started off walking in with an Anthony Richardson t-shirt. After only playing together for a few snaps in one game last season, it’s safe to say he’s excited to be sharing a backfield with Richardson.
Jonathan Taylor is quite excited to see what Shane Steichen can dial up with him and Anthony Richardson in the same backfield.
“He’s a mad genius.”
— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) July 24, 2024
The pros for Taylor going into this season is him being fully healthy from the get-go. Last season, even while still splitting time with Zack Moss, averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in games where he played over 50% of snaps. Moss is now gone, which will likely allow Taylor back to his workhorse role. Taylor’s time last year was likely more limited thanks to Moss having himself a career season. I am a believer in Trey Sermon, but I doubt he will take much out of his workload like Moss was this past season.
The con is that he will be playing in an offense with a rushing QB. While I think having Richardson at QB will ultimately help Taylor, there are a couple of concerns that I think will cap his full upside. The first of which is goal line usage. I’m sure Taylor will get his share of the rushing touchdowns, but unlike backs like Christian McCaffrey who get all the rushing attempts on the goal line, Taylor will have to compete against Richardson. We have seen Steichen with a rushing QB in Hurts who had 23 rushing touchdowns in his two years at Philadelphia. While I’m unsure if Richardson will be getting 10 rushing touchdowns a year, it wouldn’t surprise me either, considering he had 4 in 4 games last season. So this likely caps Taylor’s rushing touchdown upside.
Touchdowns aren’t the only thing that I am concerned about though, the other concern is receptions out of the backfield. Going back to 2021, which is when Taylor finished as RB1 overall, he had 51 targets and 40 receptions. Now looking back at this past season, Richardson only threw to the running backs about 14% of the time(Minshew threw to them 16% of the time.) While most of this was without Jonathan Taylor for Richardson, if this doesn’t change this year, this would leave Taylor without that receiving upside as well. If we project out Richardson’s very limited sample size last year to a full season of fully healthy games, he would have attempted 544 passes, which at his 14% to the running back room as a whole would give you 76 targets. Considering that Taylor will not be getting all of those targets, he would be lucky to get that career-high of 51 targets again.
Colts target shares with Anthony Richardson vs. Gardner Minshew at QB:
Michael Pittman:
24% Richardson
29.8% MinshewJosh Downs:
17.7% Richardson
17.8% MinshewAlec Pierce:
7.6% Richardson
12.5% MinshewRB:
13.9% Richardson
16.1% MinshewTE:
31.6% Richardson
19% Minshew— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 17, 2024
Looking at where he is being drafted, he is being drafted right behind Jahmyr Gibbs, while going ahead of Saquon Barkley, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Kyren Williams. Which is honestly almost the perfect spot for Taylor. His situation reminds me of Barkley’s, who is playing now with a rushing QB who will take goal-line work and won’t throw to them as much, but playing alongside them will also in a way help. I think players like Harrison and Williams have a higher upside but also come with their own risks being a rookie and injuries, respectively.
Ultimately, I think Taylor offers you a safe top-15 RB floor with a top-5 upside if he plays the full season. The problem is, I don’t see a scenario where he ends up as the RB1 overall again this season. I’ll be drafting Kyren Williams over him for the upside Williams provides but I think Taylor is still in a good spot to draft at this price.
Verdict: Draft, but manage expectations
Other RBs: I am not personally someone who likes taking handcuffs, but the handcuffs of the top fantasy RBs are actually very valuable when the starter goes down. If Taylor were to ever miss time I would expect Trey Sermon(RB76) to be the guy to own. He is currently free, compared to some of the other backups to the first-round drafted RBs, so I’d be happy to use a roster spot on him if I had an open one at the end of the draft.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr; ADP: WR20
I talked earlier about swinging for upside with a guy like Anthony Richardson. While you want those high-upside guys on your fantasy team, you also need guys that are consistently good. There are very few players who are more consistent than Michael Pittman Jr. Over these past 3 seasons, he has reached around 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 4 touchdowns. This year though, with his new contract, he is looking for more.
#Colts WR Michael Pittman on what he’s chasing:
“I’m chasing respect. The whole thing that comes with being an older is guy is like I’m known now, but I need to get to that next level …”
“I haven’t been a big TD guy, so that’s something that I’m really gonna focus on.” pic.twitter.com/GTVHGEiA8v
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) July 24, 2024
To reach this goal, he wants to build on the chemistry he had with Richardson last season. Over the offseason, they worked out a couple of times together, and now in training camp, Pittman Jr. has been stretching out side by side with Richardson, instead of being with the wide receiver grouping. You can also tell during the team drills that Richardson and Pittman Jr. do have a special connection that could help Pittman make that jump.
The Anthony Richardson – Michael Pittman Jr. connection is legit.
That duos chemistry looks drastically improved entering year two together.
— Destin Adams (@TheDestinAdams) July 27, 2024
Pittman has also talked about his tiers as a WR1 in an NFL offense. His tiers are 1,000 yards, 1,200 yards, and at the top 1,400+. He has only hit that lower tier and is looking to grow from it. He has had similar limitations as Indy native Terry McLaurin by having more starting QBs in his career than seasons played. While I think that even having a full season with Richardson it would be surprising for Pittman to reach that 1,400 mark, I could see him ending up making that 1,200 mark. The only thing that could hold him from jumping up that tier is the competition in the receiving game this year. It’s arguably the strongest WR room that Pittman has found himself in. He still projects to be the alpha of this offense, but he is now no longer the only reliable option.
If Pittman can make that jump with touchdowns and increase his receiving yards, he is a smash hit at this ADP. Even if he puts up similar numbers to last year, he is still at a discount from last year’s WR13 finish. I believe his ADP is so low is due partly to name fatigue on him not getting over the hump of over 1,000 yards and the lack of touchdowns. For instance, if he hit 8 touchdowns last season instead of 4, he would have finished as the WR9. I’d be very happy to get him as my WR2, which is where his ADP has him landing.
*EDIT* After the Josh Downs injury(high-ankle sprain), I think there’s a chance this gets Pittman even more work to at least start the season.
Verdict: Draft
Other WRs: I am kind of surprised that Adonai Mitchell(WR51) is being drafted as the next Colts wide receiver. While I am loving the upside long-term for Mitchell, I am passing at this draft cost. Pittman and Josh Downs are projected to get a majority of the receiving work with Alec Pierce and Mitchell rotating in. Looking around him at this price are other WRs I would personally rank higher like Courtland Sutton, Romeo Doubs, and even Curtis Samuel. Mitchell though, is someone that I could see picking up around midseason, as the team starts working him into the offense more.
Josh Downs(WR59) though is at a spot where I would be happy to mix him in on some of my rosters. Coming in the same draft as Richardson, they have a lot of chemistry together. Not only that but if Pittman were to miss time at all this season, I would expect Downs to get a big uptick in targets, taking over that Pittman role. Even if Pittman stays healthy, Downs projects to be a starting WR on this team after breaking the team’s rookie receptions record last season. Downs reaching that 1,000-yard mark would not surprise me this year. *EDIT* Now that Downs has a high-ankle sprain, I am still interested in him since this doesn’t seem like a long-term injury, but I am also more interested in drafting other players around his ADP
Alec Pierce(WR114) has not had the start to the career he was probably looking for. A constant change in his starting QB, as well as being primarily used as the field stretching WR for the team. This ADP reflects that, while also the feeling that Mitchell was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft to come in and replace him. While I still think that he will get playing time, I think it will decrease as the season goes on and Mitchell grows into his role. So I am passing on Pierce this year and can pick him off on waivers if I am wrong.
TE: Jelani Woods; ADP: TE31
Ever since becoming a Day 2 NFL Draft pick, Woods has been tantalizing with potential. He was graded as the highest RAS (Relative Athletic Score) ever for a TE at the time of the 2022 draft, that is until Old Dominion’s Zack Kuntz dethroned him the year following. Woods followed this up with a lackluster rookie season, totaling 25 receptions for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then followed this up with missing the entirety of his sophomore year. Now he is back healthy in hopes of being the starter and becoming what he was drafted to be.
The problem is that this year’s tight end room for the Colts is the deepest it’s been for a while. Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, and Drew Ogletree all project to get playing time alongside Woods this season. With no player sticking out of the group to give the team a reason to make them the primary guy, they will be constantly rotating these guys in and out based on whether they want to prioritize blocking, receiving, or even both. Having this many players going in and out of the lineup is going to make the catches and touchdowns of this group too hard to project on a week-to-week basis. Not to mention, coming off the injury, Woods has not even been working with the starting offense to start training camp.
“The primary theoretical first-unit offensive players were as follows (including those who rotated often): Richardson (QB), Taylor (RB), Pittman (WR), Downs (WR), Pierce (WR), Mitchell (WR), Ogletree (TE), Granson (TE)”
📝 Ogletree and Granson over Woods https://t.co/KaUfoSWf7y
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) July 28, 2024
This season, for the first time in a long time, there is an abundance of tight ends worth drafting in fantasy. In an area that used to just be occupied by Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle, now the position has a bunch of young talent and veterans who have finally broken out. Between the young guys like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid to the vets like David Njoku, Evan Engram, and Dalton Schultz, there are plenty of seemingly quality starting tight ends for you to draft. Definitely enough to make me pass on using one of my roster spots on Woods.
Verdict: Pass
Other TEs: I am going to keep this brief, but as I mentioned with Woods, since there is no clear-cut top option at TE for the Colts I am out on all of them. And trying to guess which one would be the guy this year is too difficult for me to use a roster spot on. If I would take the shot, Woods would be the guy, considering he offers the highest fantasy upside of the group.
More from The Blue Stable:
