The event horizon is a phrase most commonly used to describe the point of no return at a black hole, where not even light can escape. The seismic vacuum energy surrounding the space vortex defies conventional mathematics and has been lauded by Nobel-winning scientists as the second most powerful force in the universe, only behind whatever it is that follows the Indianapolis Colts to Jacksonville, Florida, annually.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) is stopped by Jacksonville Jaguars players Rayshawn Jenkins (2) and Foyesade Oluokun (23) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)(APMedia)
You know the numbers because you’ve heard about them for over a decade. It was in 2018 when the Colts started 2-5 before rattling off wins in eight of their next nine games. That one loss, of course, came in a road defeat to the 5-11 Jaguars. Shall I remind the reader that the Jaguars almost pulled off the near impossible in 2020? The Phillip Rivers-led Colts stood in their way, however, preventing the Jaguars from the utter embarrassment that a winless season provides. 2021 will only be mentioned in the gloomy recesses of Indianapolis, where the truly hopeless fans broach the topic only to induce anxiety of collapses they are sure will come in the present season.
There is no sugarcoating the Colts’ decade-long struggle in Duval, and I am done rearticulating the past failures of regimes and quarterbacks long gone. The only game that matters in this series is the one that will be played on December 7th at EverBank Stadium. Not only will it define the rest of the 2025 Colts season, but it will likely serve as an inflection point for the present regime, veteran players, and current era of Indianapolis Colts football.
What say the mysterious forces now?
It is fitting that the crossroads the Colts find themselves at will be influenced by their perennial tormentor. In every coming-of-age tale, the breakthrough comes only after the nemesis is confronted. Indy’s version of that moment is now squarely on the table.
Overly dramatic?
Maybe, but if the Colts fall to 8-5 before heading to Seattle after having lost a more than comfortable division lead, the snowball may start rolling downhill fast.
Putting aside the doom and gloom for a second, there is a realistic scenario where the Colts take care of business in Jacksonville. Curses would be cast aside, the clouds would part, and the sun would finally shine again on a Colts team in Jacksonville. A win would put the Colts at the front of the division once again while also tossing the monkey that has slowly been forming on their back the last few weeks. Veterans like Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, Zaire Franklin, and DeForest Buckner have been around for the recent collapses, and getting the train back on the tracks in a place where it has perennially fallen off may just give this team the boost it needs to finally get Indianapolis back at the top of the division.
A win against Jacksonville next week wouldn’t guarantee the Colts a playoff spot, but it would momentarily pause the turbulence the month of November caused.
What if this tailspin isn’t just a one-month slump, and the Colts stagger all the way to the finish line? Would that result in missing the playoffs entirely? That DEFCON-1 scenario is what many expect after three losses in their last four games. Given the history of recent seasons, it’s hard to fault anyone for adopting a “see it to believe it” stance with this iteration of the team.
Missing the playoffs, something that would be more likely than not with a loss to Jacksonville, would probably end the Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen regime in Indianapolis, and with it, a roster teardown to the studs could ensue. After next season, the Colts’ championship “window”, if you elect to call it that, will essentially close. Quenton Nelson, Michael Pittman Jr, Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore II, Grover Stewart, Josh Downs, and Anthony Richardson will all be free agents. If the Colts miss the playoffs this year and sweep the cupboard bare, the next general manager would likely try to move many of those expiring contracts for draft capital to kickstart the rebuild, something the Colts haven’t fully committed to since the beginning of the Andrew Luck era.
Even if 2025 turns apocalyptic for the Colts, 2026 wouldn’t need to be a wasted year. With Anthony Richardson in the last year of his contract, the Colts could keep enough of the offense intact around him to get a final evaluation on his potential as a franchise quarterback, as slim as those chances look to be. If the Richardson wildcard goes up in flames in the Colts fire sale, and the Colts accumulate assets for 2027, they could be in a position to draft a quarterback in ‘27 despite not having a first in next year’s draft as it currently stands.
Discussing scenarios that need several sets of dominoes to fall may seem trivial now, but I’ve already laid out the case for why the result of the Colts’ week 14 game in Jacksonville could have far-reaching impacts on the future of Indianapolis’s 2025 season and beyond. The Colts will either put an end to one of the franchise’s most persistent curses and catapult themselves back into the AFC title hunt, or they’ll slide back into the pack — a fate Indy fans have watched far too often over the last five years.
Thus, a Rubicon of sorts lies ahead for the Indianapolis Colts. It’s situated in the same place where their troubled past has bitten them time after time. Some may argue it’s time for the trade winds to switch in Jacksonville, where a game marred by parody has seen astonishingly similar results for a decade running.
Either way, the Colts will march on to Jacksonville, towards a quickly approaching event horizon with all their chips in hand.
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