The Indianapolis Colts’ first loss of the season wasn’t about talent; it was about discipline. From mental errors on defense to giveaways on offense, Indy handed the Rams the breaks they needed in a 27 to 20 defeat. The good news? All of those wounds are fixable. And if the first three weeks taught us anything, it is that this team is for real.
Local voices were quick to call the mistakes “unacceptable,” but just as loud was the reminder that one game does not erase what the Colts have built. Daniel Jones showed resilience in the face of adversity, Jonathan Taylor continued to flash explosiveness, and the defense still created pressure in big moments. In short, the foundation remains strong, and that is why national and local outlets alike are still labeling Indianapolis a legitimate AFC threat.
Now comes the next step, back home to host Las Vegas. The Raiders are reeling after a mistake-filled loss of their own, with turnovers and offensive line injuries keeping them from finding rhythm. Their passing game leans on wideout Jakobi Meyers and the emerging Tre Tucker, while second-year tight end Brock Bowers has become a centerpiece. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty adds burst in the ground game. It is a dangerous but beatable group, one the Colts can control if they play clean.
The keyword this week is focus. Avoid the mental lapses, eliminate the self-inflicted wounds, and let talent carry the day. The Colts have shown they can compete with anyone. Sunday is about proving they can finish. As head coach Shane Steichen put it: “We talked about being relentless, disciplined for 60 minutes this week, that was the focus.” That is the standard, and if Indy lives up to it, they will walk out of Lucas Oil Stadium with redemption and momentum back on their side.
Key Matchups
Colts Front Four vs Raiders Offensive Line
Las Vegas has battled inconsistency and just lost left tackle Kolton Miller to IR with a high ankle sprain and a hairline fracture. Protection now falls to backup Stone Forsythe. This is where DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye, Tyquan Lewis, and Laiatu Latu can tilt the game by collapsing Geno Smith’s pocket and forcing mistakes.
Jonathan Taylor vs Raiders’ Run Defense
When Taylor gets rolling, Indy’s offense opens up. Against a Raiders defense that has cracked against power running, establishing him early can control the tempo and wear them down.
Michael Pittman Jr. vs the Raiders Secondary
Pittman Jr. has been Jones’ most trusted target, but he is now listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, his physical style will be tested against a Raiders secondary that has struggled in contested situations. The Colts know they need more consistent help around him, too. On September 30, they worked out two free agent wideouts, Kisean Johnson and Eli Pancol, a sign that one of Sunday’s downfalls is being addressed. Pittman can win his matchups, but reinforcements could change the passing game balance.
Brock Bowers vs Colts Linebackers
Bowers will test Indy’s linebacking corps, led by Zaire Franklin and Joe Bachie, with Chad Muma and Segun Olubi behind them. His speed, route versatility, and ability to separate over the middle make him a matchup problem. If Franklin and company can disrupt his timing or force contested catches, it limits Vegas’ most dynamic weapon.
Jakobi Meyers & Tre Tucker vs Colts Corners
The Colts’ cornerback depth has gone from shaky to razor-thin. With Xavien Howard now on the reserve and retired list, outside duties presumably fall to Charvarius Ward and Mekhi Blackmon, while Kenny Moore II is the primary nickel. The problem is that Moore is battling an Achilles injury and was a DNP during this week’s practice, leaving his status uncertain. Undrafted free agent cornerback Johnathan Edwards, who has played well in short spurts as the defense’s 6th defensive back in dime packages, is the next man up outside if needed.
That uncertainty only magnifies the challenge against Meyers, Tucker, and Bowers. If Moore cannot go, Lou Anarumo will have to lean heavily on his safety group, Camryn Bynum, Rodney Thomas II, Nick Cross, and newly elevated Trey Washington, to patch the middle of the field.
Cornerback Depth / Limited Reinforcements
Compounding the issue, there has been little in the way of external help. The Colts did sign rookie CB Keenan Garber to the practice squad and could elevate Mike Hilton again to provide slot support, but no veteran has been added. That leaves Anarumo with limited options and serious pressure to scheme around what he has.
Turnover Battle
Both teams let winnable games slip away last week by beating themselves. If the Colts protect the football and force the Raiders into their usual mistakes, their overall talent advantage should show.
Coaching Matchup
Shane Steichen and Lou Anarumo
Steichen’s message this week has been all about focus. “Relentless, disciplined for 60 minutes.” His challenge now is rallying a locker room after a mistake-filled loss. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is staring at a storm. With Howard retired and Moore questionable, the secondary is dangerously thin. No proven veteran corners were brought in for workouts, which means his fixes must come from scheme, disguises, and safety help.
Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly
Carroll has the Raiders playing with energy, but discipline remains an issue. Turnovers and penalties doomed them against Chicago. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s game plan is straightforward: keep Geno Smith clean and relentlessly test Indy’s secondary with Bowers, Meyers, and Tucker. If Moore cannot go, expect Kelly to attack the slot early and often.
Bottom Line: Coaching adjustments, not raw talent, will decide this one.
X-Factors
Lou Anarumo’s Adjustments
With Howard retired and Kenny Moore II questionable, Anarumo’s scheme creativity is the X-Factor. If he can disguise coverages and find ways to limit Bowers and Meyers, Indy has a chance to control the game.
Jonathan Taylor Controlling Tempo
Taylor is the Colts’ best way to dictate terms. If he sets the tone early, Carroll’s defense will be on its heels all afternoon.
Daniel Jones’ Composure
Jones does not need gaudy stats; he needs to avoid back-breaking turnovers. Shaking off last week’s interceptions and playing efficient football is the difference between a grind-it-out win and another wasted effort.
Red Zone Execution
Settling for field goals burned Indy last week. Against Kelly’s play-calling, the Colts must finish drives with touchdowns.
Mental Discipline
From Mitchell’s fumble to busted coverages, last week was lost in focus. That makes discipline, penalties, assignments, and finishing plays, the ultimate hidden X-Factor. If Indy stays clean, they are the better team.
Spencer Shrader’s Leg
While the Colts cannot afford to settle for field goals in the red zone, Shrader’s reliability has been a weapon. Named AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after hitting 13 field goals at a 92.9%, Shrader has given Indy stability in close games. If the offense stalls, his leg ensures points still come off drives, and in a matchup where discipline is everything, those steady kicks matter.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
In many ways, this game is a litmus test for the Colts. They have shown they belong by starting 3 and 0, but Sunday’s loss exposed vulnerabilities in discipline and depth. The Raiders are a flawed opponent, turnover-prone, with O-line issues with Kolton Miller on IR, and searching for stability under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.
If Indianapolis fixes the self-inflicted errors, leans on Taylor to control the clock, and keeps Geno Smith uncomfortable, they should come out on top. But with Kenny Moore’s status uncertain and no cornerback reinforcements beyond Garber’s practice squad signing, the secondary remains the major what-if.
Predicted Score: Colts 27, Raiders 17
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